A sizable chunk of NFL games are decided by one simple question: Which quarterback was better?
In the 2025 season, teams posted a 208-71 record (.746) when they finished with a better passer rating than their opponent, equivalent to about 12.7 wins over a 17-game schedule.
So, with absolutely no other context about how the rest of the game transpired, we can determine with near-75% certainty which team won, solely based on which quarterback was more efficient (at least based on passer rating).
That brings us to the New York Jets and penciled-in starter Geno Smith. How often will Smith give New York a quarterback advantage in 2026?
Let’s try to figure that out.
Game-by-game
One method of doing this is to go game-by-game through the Jets’ 2026 schedule and deduce…
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Source jetsxfactor.com
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