As rising prices at the gas pump hit consumers’ wallets, Americans already hunting for cheaper fuel may soon confront a bigger challenge: preparing for a potential recession.
Oil price surges resulting from the Iran war drove inflation expectations and recession odds higher in March, according to a Moody’s Analytics model. The firm’s chief economist Mark Zandi said in a note that even before the war began, the firm’s model had raised the probability of the United States entering a recession in the next 12 months to an “uncomfortably high” 49% − essentially a coin flip.
Other firms’ recession odds aren’t quite as high. Oxford Economics places the odds at 30%, but a sustained stretch of oil prices above $140…
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