Will Good FSD Overcome Bad Deliveries in Q2? | Science & Tech

In the first quarter, Tesla produced over 433,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles. They deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in Q1, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

The delivery numbers were bad for Tesla in Q1. There were fires in Berlin from ecoterrorists and delays in the supply chain because of Persian Gulf Houthis. China had weak numbers. There was also the delay in transitioning to the refreshed Model 3 Highland in the US Fremont factory.

Tesla has the one month free trial for FSD 12.3.3 out to 1.8 million Tesla owners. If 5% chose to buy or subscribe then this would 90,000 new sales. Any full sale would be $12000 vs just over $8000 in profit on a car. A full year subscription would be $2400. It would take three subscriptions for one year to be about the profitability of a car.

90,000 FSD with 30,000 as a full sale and 60,000 as a subscription would be equal to the profit of 45,000 cars immediately and 20,000 additional car profits while the subscriptions last.

If 15% additional chose to buy and subscribe in North America and in China over the rest of 2024 and the mix was again one full sale and two subscription this would be for about 4 million possible cars. 600,000 FSD with 200,000 full sales and 400,000 subscriptions. This would be the profit from 300,000 cars immediately and 130,000 additional car profits each year while the subscriptions last.

21,000 FSD sales is a one percent increase in margin. The 5% sale scenario is about 4% more margin and the 15% scenario for US and China would be about 20% more margin.

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular…

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